SpaceX targeting Monday for Starship launch, but weather is iffy [Updated]

8:00 am ET Monday Update: SpaceX is now targeting Monday for a launch attempt of its SN11 Starship prototype. The company has obtained a road closure of Boca Chica Highway in South Texas from noon local time (17:00 UTC) to 5 pm (22:00 UTC). SpaceX has confirmed it is targeting a high-altitude flight to 10 km, similar to recent missions, and will seek to demonstrate a smooth launch, controlled descent, and vertical landing.

Weather is a concern today, with showers in the vicinity of the launch site on Monday morning. However, high-resolution forecast models indicate these showers will pull away from the area this afternoon. Skies should remain mostly cloudy, however, and it’s not clear how much visibility SpaceX will want for this test launch. Tuesday’s weather should be more favorable, if the company holds off for a day.

SpaceX will provide a webcast for this test flight, and the link will be inserted into this post when it goes live.

3:45pm ET Friday Update: After several hours of work at SpaceX’s South Texas launch pad on Friday afternoon, road closures for Boca Chica Highway were lifted. This offered a clear indication that SN11 would not attempt a launch on Friday.

While it is possible that SpaceX could try to fly the Starship prototype on Saturday, the company has typically avoided weekend road closures in order to allow access to nearby beaches. Therefore, it seems most likely that SpaceX will now target Monday of next week as the earliest opportunity to fly the vehicle. If that changes we will update accordingly.

Original post: SpaceX appears set to fly the latest prototype of its Starship vehicle—dubbed SN11—as early as Friday afternoon. Local residents have been informed of the test as part of a mandatory evacuation of Boca Chica Village.

This test flight to about 10 km would be the fourth attempt by SpaceX to launch a full-scale version of its Starship vehicle to a high altitude and then land it. During the first two attempts, the vehicle failed just before landing, resulting in a crash. During a third flight, on March 3, the vehicle landed and stabilized itself but then exploded about 10 minutes later due to a fuel leak.

The latest Starship prototype has come together quickly. It rolled to the launch pad on March 8 and underwent its first static fire test on March 22. During this test, one of the three Raptor engines apparently misfired, so it had to be replaced. Once this was done, SpaceX completed a second static fire test on Friday morning.

Following this test, a preliminary data review apparently gave the launch team enough confidence to move ahead with a flight attempt later in the day. The launch window extends until 8 pm local time in South Texas, or 01:00 UTC on Saturday. Local sunset will occur around 7:45 pm.

SpaceX has a lot riding on this test flight, given that it is the fourth time the company will have attempted to demonstrate both in-flight control of the large vehicle and the ability to bring it to a safe landing. Failures are expected with such a hasty development program, but sooner or later, the company would like to actually land Starship and move forward with the program.

The launch comes as SpaceX is nearing completion of the first prototype of the Super Heavy booster, which will be used to launch Starship into orbit. The first version of this rocket, BN1, will not fly but instead serve as a demonstration vehicle to be moved to the launch site and tested with ground support equipment. The next booster, BN2, is expected to fly and may do so later this spring.

SpaceX would also like to be able to demonstrate success with Starship to NASA, which in about one month is expected to select two companies to move forward with versions of a Human Landing System as part of the Artemis Moon program. SpaceX, with its Starship vehicle, is among three bidders—alongside Blue Origin and Dynetics—and is the furthest along in developing actual hardware.

Listing image by Trevor Mahlmann

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